Final thoughts on this rather putrid election cycle
My wife and I voted two weeks ago, and today we are running away to El Paso. Russet's new MacBook Pro has a faulty return key, and that needs to be fixed. And we have some other targeted retail therapy that we need to engage in. Sadly, a movie is probably not possible as she has a phone con at 9pm that we need to be back for.
Anyway, the election.
Regardless of who wins, it is probably not the end of the world. Many people have said that in private, Donald Trump is nothing like his public campaign persona. Maybe that's true, the problem is that it is the only persona that 99% of the public have seen. And even if I accept that, over the weekend I read a Forbes article where the reporter talked about meeting Trump and family about ten years ago for a video shoot, and he acted like a total plutocrat. The people there for the shoot had no opinion worth his consideration, he wouldn't even exchange handshakes and pleasantries with them. This reinforces the public campaign persona perception that he is as he appears to be.
But let's dismiss that. We'll also dismiss dismiss the wall, sexism, racism, incitement to violence at rallies, and hatred of the press and the freedom they should embody and exercise. At the same time, we'll dismiss emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, deplorables. Many investigations, but no convictions -- gone from consideration.
I'm reducing the election down to the two main candidates. They're about the same age, opposite genders. One started with a huge amount of money, and as far as we know, has about the same amount. He's spent his entire life constructing buildings and smearing his name across them all. There's no evidence that he's ever seriously contributed his own money to charity or done much to support those in dire straits. Maybe he's so private that there's no way we could trace the millions that he's given to charities, but we'll never know. Considering the way his name is plastered all over the place, I really can't see him doing something secretively good and humble.
His opponent comes from very humble middle class background. She got a law degree, worked as a public defender, spent pretty much her entire life working for non-profits and government, trying to do something good. And frequently succeeding.
One person has spent their life working for the government, the other working for profit. I have spent most of my working life in government, I've also worked in the for-profit commercial/retail sector. Government does not work like non-government. You cannot rule by fiat, you have to work within laws and regulations. You have to make your budget work or hit your rainy day fund, in the private sector your budget is much more flexible.
But it's the motivation between the two that interests me. Can someone Make America Great Again when the stock market for the last eight years has been outperforming the previous eight years? Unemployment has been shrinking, albeit slower than we might like. The overall indicators are that America is a pretty great country, although probably the only things that we're truly number one in are the size of our military and our prison population. But we're pretty good, otherwise most foreign governments wouldn't buy American government securities. Is there room for improvement? Absolutely. Why does a country like this have so many children getting free or subsidized school breakfasts and lunch? Meanwhile, we have some of the poorest performing high school graduates in the world. Why do we have among the slowest internet access in the world and pay the most for it?
There's LOTS of room for improvement, but we're still a fairly great country. And it's impossible for a single country to be the best at everything: there's always compromises that must be made.
The result of the election is that it's going to be a mess. This morning, a friend sent me a text message that said "My greatest fear is that today, someone will win the election." Regardless of who wins, approximately half the country is going to feel alienated and possibly antagonistic. And one candidate has been a whiny little bitch, claiming in advance that the election is rigged while he won most primary elections. I'm not quite sure how that parses. So if he loses, the election was rigged against him. But if he wins, that means the election was rigged for him.
Whatever.
My expectation is that after today there will be states that will require recounts, and unless it's a landslide for one candidate or the other, we won't really know anything until the Electoral College convenes in one month. I also expect there to be law suits challenging results. In other words, a royal shit soup.
I hope Hillary wins. I hope she wins by a huge landslide and absolutely buries Trump and his brand. And we'll survive four or eight years of her presidency. There will be ups and downs. And if Trump wins? We'll probably survive it. We survived 8 years of Dubya and 12 years of Reagan/Bush, we'll survive. Regardless of how he appears, he is not an idiot, but he is hugely arrogant and I don't think he's as smart as he thinks he is. Neither candidate will have a fully-cooperative Congress, witness Republican Senators proclaiming right now that they will never approve a Supreme Court Justice nominated by Hillary. That is a perfect illustration of how broken our political process is. They think Trump nominees will be better?
Whatever.
My expectation of a Trump presidency is that he would tank the economy through his alleged tax reform and ruin the health care insurance system, which is critical in me remaining alive. And I don't think he would serve a second term. But that's speculation. My expectation of a Hillary presidency is not a huge amount of improvement in the economy, perhaps some improvement in the Affordable Care Act, and some movement towards rational gun regulation and campaign finance reform.
What will we see? We'll begin getting some clues, starting tomorrow.
Anyway, the election.
Regardless of who wins, it is probably not the end of the world. Many people have said that in private, Donald Trump is nothing like his public campaign persona. Maybe that's true, the problem is that it is the only persona that 99% of the public have seen. And even if I accept that, over the weekend I read a Forbes article where the reporter talked about meeting Trump and family about ten years ago for a video shoot, and he acted like a total plutocrat. The people there for the shoot had no opinion worth his consideration, he wouldn't even exchange handshakes and pleasantries with them. This reinforces the public campaign persona perception that he is as he appears to be.
But let's dismiss that. We'll also dismiss dismiss the wall, sexism, racism, incitement to violence at rallies, and hatred of the press and the freedom they should embody and exercise. At the same time, we'll dismiss emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, deplorables. Many investigations, but no convictions -- gone from consideration.
I'm reducing the election down to the two main candidates. They're about the same age, opposite genders. One started with a huge amount of money, and as far as we know, has about the same amount. He's spent his entire life constructing buildings and smearing his name across them all. There's no evidence that he's ever seriously contributed his own money to charity or done much to support those in dire straits. Maybe he's so private that there's no way we could trace the millions that he's given to charities, but we'll never know. Considering the way his name is plastered all over the place, I really can't see him doing something secretively good and humble.
His opponent comes from very humble middle class background. She got a law degree, worked as a public defender, spent pretty much her entire life working for non-profits and government, trying to do something good. And frequently succeeding.
One person has spent their life working for the government, the other working for profit. I have spent most of my working life in government, I've also worked in the for-profit commercial/retail sector. Government does not work like non-government. You cannot rule by fiat, you have to work within laws and regulations. You have to make your budget work or hit your rainy day fund, in the private sector your budget is much more flexible.
But it's the motivation between the two that interests me. Can someone Make America Great Again when the stock market for the last eight years has been outperforming the previous eight years? Unemployment has been shrinking, albeit slower than we might like. The overall indicators are that America is a pretty great country, although probably the only things that we're truly number one in are the size of our military and our prison population. But we're pretty good, otherwise most foreign governments wouldn't buy American government securities. Is there room for improvement? Absolutely. Why does a country like this have so many children getting free or subsidized school breakfasts and lunch? Meanwhile, we have some of the poorest performing high school graduates in the world. Why do we have among the slowest internet access in the world and pay the most for it?
There's LOTS of room for improvement, but we're still a fairly great country. And it's impossible for a single country to be the best at everything: there's always compromises that must be made.
The result of the election is that it's going to be a mess. This morning, a friend sent me a text message that said "My greatest fear is that today, someone will win the election." Regardless of who wins, approximately half the country is going to feel alienated and possibly antagonistic. And one candidate has been a whiny little bitch, claiming in advance that the election is rigged while he won most primary elections. I'm not quite sure how that parses. So if he loses, the election was rigged against him. But if he wins, that means the election was rigged for him.
Whatever.
My expectation is that after today there will be states that will require recounts, and unless it's a landslide for one candidate or the other, we won't really know anything until the Electoral College convenes in one month. I also expect there to be law suits challenging results. In other words, a royal shit soup.
I hope Hillary wins. I hope she wins by a huge landslide and absolutely buries Trump and his brand. And we'll survive four or eight years of her presidency. There will be ups and downs. And if Trump wins? We'll probably survive it. We survived 8 years of Dubya and 12 years of Reagan/Bush, we'll survive. Regardless of how he appears, he is not an idiot, but he is hugely arrogant and I don't think he's as smart as he thinks he is. Neither candidate will have a fully-cooperative Congress, witness Republican Senators proclaiming right now that they will never approve a Supreme Court Justice nominated by Hillary. That is a perfect illustration of how broken our political process is. They think Trump nominees will be better?
Whatever.
My expectation of a Trump presidency is that he would tank the economy through his alleged tax reform and ruin the health care insurance system, which is critical in me remaining alive. And I don't think he would serve a second term. But that's speculation. My expectation of a Hillary presidency is not a huge amount of improvement in the economy, perhaps some improvement in the Affordable Care Act, and some movement towards rational gun regulation and campaign finance reform.
What will we see? We'll begin getting some clues, starting tomorrow.