I think your numbers are a little overstated

"I used to be 100% loved. Now I'm probably 55% loved."
—Donald Trump

Just a hunch, mind you.

The biggest problem, in my ever so humble opinion, is that the Republicans have started campaigning so early. Even though they have billionaire backers, thanks to Citizens United, they can't afford to campaign this long. Trump totally screws their numbers because he can pretty much single-handedly outspend the entire field of wannabees. Even if Trump had not announced I think they would have been in trouble.

I have no doubt that this will be the most expensive presidential election to date.