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thewayneHere's the thing. It is not possible to declare X or Y won RIGHT NOW, because of the huge voter turnout. It looks like this is the largest voter turnout of any election, possibly in history. The early voting by itself pretty much exceeded all votes cast in the 2016 election.
And pretty much none of those votes have been tallied.
Regardless of what President Whiny Butt wants, they're not going to stop counting ballots tonight. State law doesn't permit it. Every vote has to be counted. And that includes mailed ballots.
What we're seeing right now is the people who voted TODAY, and I'm thinking that those were probably mostly his partizans. The numbers are going to change as the mailed votes and early votes are processed, and it is still possible for a Democratic tsunami to sweep him out of office.
Or not.
We don't know.
The states have a couple of weeks, IIRC, to certify their election counts. And I'm sure both sides will have all sorts of lawyers fighting for their candidates.
And that's not the end of it.
Our Presidential election consists of three stages. This is the first stage. The people vote, the States certify the votes.
That's Stage 1.
But we're not actually voting for the President. We're voting for a slate of electors who go to the Electoral College, who meet in December.
THAT is where the actual decision is made.
You keep hearing about 269? I think that's the number, at least. That's the number of electoral college votes required to win the Presidency.
[EDIT: 269 is the number a candidate must EXCEED to win the Presidency.]
That's Stage 2.
THEN the results go to the United States Congress who review and certify the results. Only at that point is it official. It's pretty much pro forma as once the Electoral College is final, the new President starts picking out wallpaper and finding out if moving vans are available around January 20th or thereabouts.
It's a complicated process. A lot of people want to eliminate the Electoral College: George W. Bush, like Donald Trump, lost the popular vote but managed to win the EC. They want a straight-up popular vote to decide the Presidency. Myself, I'm not sure where I fall on that decision. We have a huge disproportionate amount of electoral power wielded some of the huge states: California, Texas, Florida, New York. It makes some of the small states, such as my own New Mexico, feel kinda slighted. And likewise, there are Conservatives in California and Liberals in Texas who feel equally without voice.
Personally, I think ranked choice voting in every state and proportionate distribution of electors - and bound electors that MUST vote according to how they are apportioned (unless something drastic happens, like the candidate they're apportioned to dies or resigns) would make the race much more interesting.
So yes, things look bleak right now. But the counting is going to take another week or so, and the picture WILL change. We don't know how.
But I do know one thing.
The screaming is going to get a lot louder. It's going to be a long month. And even if it is a Biden win, Trump is going to fight tooth and claw to try and keep the job, because there's a good chance that he'll be spending the rest of his life in state courts, if not prison, as soon as he's out of office.
[EDIT2: Check the Wikipedia page on the Electoral College. Heck of a lot of stuff there!]
And pretty much none of those votes have been tallied.
Regardless of what President Whiny Butt wants, they're not going to stop counting ballots tonight. State law doesn't permit it. Every vote has to be counted. And that includes mailed ballots.
What we're seeing right now is the people who voted TODAY, and I'm thinking that those were probably mostly his partizans. The numbers are going to change as the mailed votes and early votes are processed, and it is still possible for a Democratic tsunami to sweep him out of office.
Or not.
We don't know.
The states have a couple of weeks, IIRC, to certify their election counts. And I'm sure both sides will have all sorts of lawyers fighting for their candidates.
And that's not the end of it.
Our Presidential election consists of three stages. This is the first stage. The people vote, the States certify the votes.
That's Stage 1.
But we're not actually voting for the President. We're voting for a slate of electors who go to the Electoral College, who meet in December.
THAT is where the actual decision is made.
You keep hearing about 269? I think that's the number, at least. That's the number of electoral college votes required to win the Presidency.
[EDIT: 269 is the number a candidate must EXCEED to win the Presidency.]
That's Stage 2.
THEN the results go to the United States Congress who review and certify the results. Only at that point is it official. It's pretty much pro forma as once the Electoral College is final, the new President starts picking out wallpaper and finding out if moving vans are available around January 20th or thereabouts.
It's a complicated process. A lot of people want to eliminate the Electoral College: George W. Bush, like Donald Trump, lost the popular vote but managed to win the EC. They want a straight-up popular vote to decide the Presidency. Myself, I'm not sure where I fall on that decision. We have a huge disproportionate amount of electoral power wielded some of the huge states: California, Texas, Florida, New York. It makes some of the small states, such as my own New Mexico, feel kinda slighted. And likewise, there are Conservatives in California and Liberals in Texas who feel equally without voice.
Personally, I think ranked choice voting in every state and proportionate distribution of electors - and bound electors that MUST vote according to how they are apportioned (unless something drastic happens, like the candidate they're apportioned to dies or resigns) would make the race much more interesting.
So yes, things look bleak right now. But the counting is going to take another week or so, and the picture WILL change. We don't know how.
But I do know one thing.
The screaming is going to get a lot louder. It's going to be a long month. And even if it is a Biden win, Trump is going to fight tooth and claw to try and keep the job, because there's a good chance that he'll be spending the rest of his life in state courts, if not prison, as soon as he's out of office.
[EDIT2: Check the Wikipedia page on the Electoral College. Heck of a lot of stuff there!]
no subject
Date: 2020-11-04 11:22 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2020-11-04 11:53 pm (UTC)Another thing is ridiculous garbage like The Iowa Caucus. They are not remotely representative of the USA. It's a ridiculous system that isn't representative of anything and isn't replicated anywhere. No one else does primaries like that. Get rid of it, get into the 21st century. Personally, I'd like to see something like what the UK has, in that their election season is around 4 months long! Our Idiot In Chief has been campaigning for reelection since his first month in office! But we've been powerless to stop it. On top of that, he hasn't been paying the cities he's been holding rallies in for what they've had to pay for overtime police and EMS services: the City of El Paso still has a half million dollars owed it that they're never going to collect, and they could really use the money right now.