New York Times article: Reaching herd immunity in the USA against Covid-19 unlikely to happen

[thewayne]

I was feeling this in my bones with the rate of vaccination declining and the growing opposition against vaccination, not to mention the rising number of variations.

Personally, I have no problem with getting an annual Covid vaccination, I can accept that. I really hate the possibility of always having a mask around my neck and pulling it up every time I go on the floor and into the stacks. Plus, one of my student workers won't get vaccinated, she "has convictions". I wonder if she has convictions against polio and tetanus, or if she's in favor of them. At least she'll complete her education at some point and leave.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/health/covid-herd-immunity-vaccine.html

https://science.slashdot.org/story/21/05/03/167239/reaching-herd-immunity-is-unlikely-in-the-us-experts-now-believe

Comments

[dewline]

So many foolish people hoping to strike a blow by way of refusing vaccinations...and for what? Against what?

I think I already know the answers to both, and that's what troubles me so much.

[thewayne]

There's a saying in computer security: "Social engineering: because there is no patch for human stupidity."  So much of this hesitancy and rejection springs out of conspiracy theory and QAnon.  It is truly sickening.

[dewline]

And QAnon was planned. Now, there's a real conspiracy to pursue on Espionage Act or RICO charges.

[rain_gryphon]

I can't blame the people who don't want to get vaccinated, The CDC destroyed their credibility by lying about, and oversimplifying their message on masks. Why should people believe them on vaccines? The MSM adds to the problem by never directly addressing skeptics' views, but simply "debunking", and cheerleading for the CDC's narrative. How could distrust fail to grow in such an environment?

[bibliofile]

I skip the mainstream media and go directly to scientists and doctors and science mags. They all say that vaccines work and they're safe. I trust science.

[thewayne]

While I think you have a point, Gryphon, I'm on Bibliophile's page.  The science of vaccines is well-established, National Institutes of Health have been working on coronavirus vaccine research for something on the order of 13 years or more.  Obviously not for this specific virus, but they had the basic package in development and it didn't take a lot of tweaking to tune it for this specific one.  Meanwhile, BioNTech in Germany have been working on mRNA tech to fight cancer - with great success - for ages, it's their life's work.  They developed a vaccine very quickly because they, too, had great fundamental tools already at hand.  But they didn't have the production capacity, so they partnered with Pfizer.  If Trump had left CDC in competent hands rather than in the control of sycophants, while we would still have this problem, it wouldn't be nearly this bad and we'd be a lot closer to herd immunity.  For that matter, had Trump been a man and worn a mask and promoted vaccination.... but that's water under the bridge and there's no going back to that point and playing the What If game.

Trump systematically set out to destroy trust in science,

[rain_gryphon]

Do you remember when we were young, the esteem in which science and scientists were held? Science had given us the moon, the bottom of the ocean, and the secrets of the atom. It stood like a second sun, ready to light our way into the future. If a scientist told you something, it was true. You don't unravel a faith like that in four years.

[rain_gryphon]

You and I, however, are of a generation when the philosophy and methodology of science were still taught to all students, and of a time when scientists stayed above politics. Those days are long over. "Follow the science", to the current generation, seems to mean, "Quit arguing, and do as you're told". That's working about as well as it wlways has.

[bibliofile]

> "Follow the science", to the current generation, seems to mean, "Quit arguing, and do as you're told". That's working about as well as it wlways has.

Hah! That line never worked for me. Fortunately my parents would in fact explain stuff to me pretty regularly.

As an adult, it also helps that I have friends and relations who are in science and healthcare professions. With the internet, it's even possible to look up research online. (Yeah, I looked at those studies that supposedly link vaccines to autism.) Media literacy and internet literacy are the best tools for that, though -- even more important than scientific anything, you could argue.

[kathmandu]

I estimated all along that real herd immunity (as in, a contagious person arrives in town and only ever encounters immune people; the few who are not immune are insulated from contagion by the vast herd of immune people around them), for this, would require about 95% of the population immune, same as for measles. It's just *so* super-spready when you give it the right conditions.

But we got up to 95% for measles, before the anti-vax movement gained traction. I was really hoping we could attain that level for this too. I thought the barrier would be if authorities decided 60% was good enough, and stopped providing it free.

[thewayne]

The sad thing is that if the India variation gets here, a lot of people are gonna die.  Very virulent, very deadly.  And eventually it will probably arrive.  Our governor (NM) says a lot of restrictions will be lifted if we hit 60% vaccination rate, we're just over 50% with at least one shot, 30~% fully vaccinated.

[armiphlage]

"she "has convictions""
For what, criminal negligence?

[thewayne]

I was so tempted to say "I don't care what crimes you committed, you need to get the shot".  I was talking to the director today, and she has a health background, she just didn't want to get into it with her.  She's not the sharpest bulb in the drawer, and if we could, we'd clone the other student and dump this one.  I have no idea how close she is to completing her studies, the other is completing her nursing studies at the end of the year and then she's gone to study for her licensing exams.

[rain_gryphon]

And in the end, of course, having been vaccinated may not make any difference anyway. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56992121

[thewayne]

If there's one absolute statement to be made, there's some scary shit out there!  Having said that, the article said they're using the Chinese vaccine and I remembered that one having poor efficiency, like a 56% effectiveness, but according to the Wikipedia page, it's testing out at 79-86%, so it's pretty effective.  Looks like Covid vaccine producers have a lifetime of work ahead of them playing whack-a-mole.

[rain_gryphon]

Chinese vaccine has been all over the place in terms of efficacy - it's apparently random from one test to the next. I personally wonder if they're diluting the stuff to make more doses. Sadly, the article doesn't break down cases by what vaccine they received. 79-86% was, IIRC, two of the best trial results, in China itself, and the Emirates, which they'd like diplomatic inroads to, and may in conequence have supplied with their very best product.

[thewayne]

Brazil recently rejected the Russian Sputnik vaccine, said their scientists weren't allowed into the production facility to inspect their site, and further claimed that the adenovirus wasn't inactivated.  So there's some interesting games afoot.  It's a good argument for using the chimpanzee adenovirus rather than a human one.  I'm just glad I got one of the mRNA vaccines. 

[rain_gryphon]

I'm well-pleased to live in America, where we have access to high quality, avante-garde vaccines. Of course, if Biden gets his way, and the vaccine companies' intellectual property becomes public domain, then it's debateable who, if anyone, will put forth such an effort when the next pandemic comes along.

[silveradept]

We do not wish harm upon anyone, but it would be nice if those people who "have convictions" would understand the soul-shattering loss that is how many people have died of the thing and how probable it is they will be harmed severely or dead if they get it, too. Or that the people they love will be harmed or dead, and they might be the reason for it.

It seems like a lot of those "convictions" are of the order of "I'm not letting someone inject me with a tracking device in the guise of fighting a nonexistent virus," nonsense.

[thewayne]

She has a very poor ability to use tech, which would correspond to a poor understanding of it.  So that would add up and could be part of the reason.  When we were doing weekly Zoom meetings during the lockdown, she was unable to get Zoom working in a browser, or in a program, and frequently just had to dial in on her phone.  And even then frequently ended up muting herself.

[silveradept]

In a completely non-condescending way, is there training for that, and does the job require sufficent technical proficiency so that she would have to complete the training course? It seems like the sort of thing someone needs to know how to do as a function of their job, rather than something optional that can be ignored because they don't want to learn.

[thewayne]

She’s sufficient in Alma for checking books in and returning them. Students have to pass a Word minimal proficiency test before they’ll be interviewed. I don’t know what her coursework plan is, it’s possible that her skills are sufficient for her field of study.

[motodraconis]

Convictions eh? What? To kill others? GAH!

[thewayne]

Yep.  We're going to have verbal-only and closed door meetings meetings to see about getting rid of her.  The only thing she brings to the library is enthusiasm: she doesn't have any great skills that are actually of value to the operation.  She can handle checking books in and out, and is good for disinfecting the private meeting rooms and other surfaces.  And since the chance of fomite transmission is all but zero, that's nothing but makework.