Ukraine Notes - twice in as many days!
May. 15th, 2022 01:47 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
thewayneThis is too big to sit on, especially if it comes to fruition soon!
The head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with the international affairs editor for Sky News, says that a coup is in process in Russia to depose Putin. For his bona fides, Budanov correctly predicted when Russia was going to invade. He seems to be a pretty straight-up, no-nonsense guy.
Needless to say, this is big. There is, of course, no telling what this would mean in terms of the invasion. We can hope that the best possible outcome would be a cessation of hostilities and soon a withdrawal of Russian forces, but it's possible that an even bigger nutter could take Putin's place and make things worse. Or that the coup could fail. By their nature, coups introduce a lot of instability in a country and there are frequently follow-on coups as the replacement administration is vulnerable and hasn't fully consolidated their power, so another group of opportunists can take their chance at trying to grab the reins. Why not!
The General goes on to say that Russia is little more than a large group of thugs with guns, and that the tipping point will be in mid August and the war should be over by the end of the year.
Now, could this guy be blowing PR smoke trying to encourage a coup against Putin? Obviously yes. But so far, the Ukrainians seem to have been fairly honest in their war-related announcements.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-intelligence-chief-optimistic-of-russian-defeat-saying-war-will-be-over-by-end-of-year-12612320
https://fortune.com/2022/05/14/does-putin-have-cancer-coup-underway-blood-cancer-ukraine-war/
A few things under the cut. And it's pretty good news, for a change.
The finale for the Eurovision song contest was Saturday, and Ukraine won! President Zelensky, perhaps overambitiously, said that they'll hold the competition in Mariupol next year. Might need an additional year or two for some reconstruction after the fighting ends. Ukraine narrowly edged out the UK's artist in the final vote.
Speaking of Mariupol, before I read the news as I was getting ready for bed about the coup and Eurovision, Russia announced that Mariupol is going to have a referendum to see if they want to join the Russian Federation. Yay? All nice and proper. Rest assured that it will be a completely fair election in which 98% of the residents vote to join Russia. Even though several thousand of the ones that voted have been dispersed throughout Russia. Absentee ballots, marvelous things.
Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive against the Donetsk offensive. You generally don't do that unless you've pretty much stopped your opponent cold and sent them reeling, it's an opportunity to really disrupt them. Since the Russian forces seem to be fairly disorganized to start with, I would think that the Ukrainians have very good chances for success here, not knowing anything about relative unit compositions and such. Just the pure "willingness to fight" between the two sides, and the Ukrainians' "Home Team Advantage" wanting to shoot the shit out of the orcs gives them a great force multiplier when it comes to launching a counter-offensive. There is one thing they have to watch out for, though. It's possible to advance faster than your rear echelon support can, and then you can get into trouble. You can compress your opponents into a tight pack that they can't escape from, and your support is too far behind you - you've stretched your resupply and medevac route thin - and possibly your artillery is too far behind to support! - and you can be in trouble! If your goal is to push out your opponent, you have to manage the advance to give them routes to pull back. Sure, kill as many as you can - they earned it, but let them have escape routes as you advance. And give time for your artillery to advance behind you so they can still support you, along with all of your rear-echelon support elements.
The head of Ukraine's military intelligence, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with the international affairs editor for Sky News, says that a coup is in process in Russia to depose Putin. For his bona fides, Budanov correctly predicted when Russia was going to invade. He seems to be a pretty straight-up, no-nonsense guy.
Needless to say, this is big. There is, of course, no telling what this would mean in terms of the invasion. We can hope that the best possible outcome would be a cessation of hostilities and soon a withdrawal of Russian forces, but it's possible that an even bigger nutter could take Putin's place and make things worse. Or that the coup could fail. By their nature, coups introduce a lot of instability in a country and there are frequently follow-on coups as the replacement administration is vulnerable and hasn't fully consolidated their power, so another group of opportunists can take their chance at trying to grab the reins. Why not!
The General goes on to say that Russia is little more than a large group of thugs with guns, and that the tipping point will be in mid August and the war should be over by the end of the year.
Now, could this guy be blowing PR smoke trying to encourage a coup against Putin? Obviously yes. But so far, the Ukrainians seem to have been fairly honest in their war-related announcements.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-intelligence-chief-optimistic-of-russian-defeat-saying-war-will-be-over-by-end-of-year-12612320
https://fortune.com/2022/05/14/does-putin-have-cancer-coup-underway-blood-cancer-ukraine-war/
A few things under the cut. And it's pretty good news, for a change.
The finale for the Eurovision song contest was Saturday, and Ukraine won! President Zelensky, perhaps overambitiously, said that they'll hold the competition in Mariupol next year. Might need an additional year or two for some reconstruction after the fighting ends. Ukraine narrowly edged out the UK's artist in the final vote.
Speaking of Mariupol, before I read the news as I was getting ready for bed about the coup and Eurovision, Russia announced that Mariupol is going to have a referendum to see if they want to join the Russian Federation. Yay? All nice and proper. Rest assured that it will be a completely fair election in which 98% of the residents vote to join Russia. Even though several thousand of the ones that voted have been dispersed throughout Russia. Absentee ballots, marvelous things.
Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive against the Donetsk offensive. You generally don't do that unless you've pretty much stopped your opponent cold and sent them reeling, it's an opportunity to really disrupt them. Since the Russian forces seem to be fairly disorganized to start with, I would think that the Ukrainians have very good chances for success here, not knowing anything about relative unit compositions and such. Just the pure "willingness to fight" between the two sides, and the Ukrainians' "Home Team Advantage" wanting to shoot the shit out of the orcs gives them a great force multiplier when it comes to launching a counter-offensive. There is one thing they have to watch out for, though. It's possible to advance faster than your rear echelon support can, and then you can get into trouble. You can compress your opponents into a tight pack that they can't escape from, and your support is too far behind you - you've stretched your resupply and medevac route thin - and possibly your artillery is too far behind to support! - and you can be in trouble! If your goal is to push out your opponent, you have to manage the advance to give them routes to pull back. Sure, kill as many as you can - they earned it, but let them have escape routes as you advance. And give time for your artillery to advance behind you so they can still support you, along with all of your rear-echelon support elements.
no subject
Date: 2022-05-15 05:05 pm (UTC)