![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
thewayneI told her late last year that it would be a good idea to order a new one because of the probability of serious inflation hitting next year. This was one of the reasons why I got my Asus laptop repaired/replaced. Our Mac laptops should be good for another 5 years or more, we'll see if OS revisions makes them stale before then.
Anyway, had some problems ordering her a new base 16 yesterday, but resolved it this morning and she'll have a new phone sometime Tuesday. We're keeping her 13 Mini as a backup and for international travel in case of border trouble. I replaced my 13 Mini shortly after the 16 released last year as it had a couple of problems that were defying easy diagnosis. Thus far, OS-problems aside, it's been an excellent phone. Takes great photos even though it's not the Pro model.
Apple apparently shippedthreefive planes-full of phones from India to the U.S. in three days last weekendmonth to avoid tariffs. And I note that the FedEx shipping confirmation for the new phone has it shipped from California: frequently when I buy big ticket items from Apple, they ship from China. This morning I saw an article that Apple stores were slammed over the weekend with people seeking new equipment before anticipated price hikes.
So. Tariffs and inflation. I'm going to talk about inflation first, in relation to Canada and Mexico since they were the first targets.
What do I think will happen. Well, we're already seeing pain in red states because Canadian businesses are stopping buying from them before last week's launch of the international trade war (including Penguin Island). With Canadian stores clearly labeling Canadian-manufactured products, it was easy for their citizens to avoid buying American products with very little effort on their part. This especially hit the liquor industry, which has lots of manufacturing in the south. Their products are slowly losing shelf space because it's not moving, so that's unsold inventory that is gathering dust. Not only is their revenue down because stores are not buying more product, at some point, stores are going to start wanting refunds on unsold merchandise from distributors.
But that's just sales, which can be a component of inflation. Let's talk about what the tariffs might do to what we see in shelf pricing. Bob and Tom are American manufacturers and they make largely the same product. Bob's source materials are American-made, and cost a little more than Tom's. Tom's source materials are now getting slammed by the tariffs and he has to pay more for his goods. To maintain profits, he has to charge more, so now his goods are a lot more expensive than Bob's. Clearly Bob, who already has decent sales, is going to sell more goods.
But is Bob going to keep the same price? Hell no! He'll raise his price, not as high as Tom's, but there's an opportunity here to make more money! Just like hurricane season and the aftermath when some lumber yards and such raise prices. There's no reason to leave money on the table if consumers must buy the product, as long as he keeps his prices lower than Tom's, who is stuck with the tariff, he's in great shape and everyone else is not only paying Tom's tariff if they buy Tom's because they like Tom, but they're also lining Bob's pocket.
And then there's poor Fred, who gets his source materials from China. He's just flat-out screwed. There's limits to how much you can raise your price and be competitive, and if he lowers his price to close to Tom's or Bob's, he may be losing money, which is no way to run a railroad.
What you'll see is manufacturers directly affected by the tariffs will raise their prices. Maybe not on current stock already made that's in the shipping pipeline, but they'll have to raise it on new stuff being made. And everyone other supplier or manufacturer is going to turn that dial up a couple of notches - not because they have to, but because the public will get used to paying more because they have no choice, and they're doing it because they don't want to leave any money on the table that they can't get ahold of.
That's my take on what we'll see on inflation. There's no way to say how high it will go or how wildly it will vary. But we are in for a wild ride.
Last week's tariffs. The most bat-shit insanity of it is that there was no sound mathematics behind it. It did not take into account the service industry, thus did not accurately reflect any potential trade imbalance. For example, Australia is a net importer of American goods (they have no automobile manufacturing there, etc.) yet were hit with a 10% tariff. There's also that arctic island that has no humans living on it, entirely populated by penguins and such, that has tariffs levied against it. It has been noted that the countries seem to have been selected/targeted by their internet Top Level Domain (.us, .uk, .de, etc). Absolutely non-sensical.
AND, just like when Premier Ford threatened an energy export tax to the USA, the piggie squealed when China threw a 34% tariff against American goods. He tried to hide behind the bluster of 'Big mistake!', but the fact is that he's never been able to handle strong opposition. He expects everyone to kowtow to him, viewing everything as a zero-sum game in which he must always win. Ignore the fact that in international trade, well-executed treaties can have everyone benefiting.
The most curious thing about his relationship with China is that all of the merchandise crap that he hawks is made there! But it's probably all paid out of a slush fund, so he probably never sees the costs and doesn't care as long as hissuckers voters continue buying it.
My expectation: the billionaire class, behind the scene, will apply pressure to reverse the tariffs and it'll get done while victory will be declared. Too much money has been wiped from the exchanges for them to be happy with this uncontrolled and turbulent situation, and they're telling the news that they don't like it. "We got what we wanted, everyone is coming to negotiate a fair deal. WE WON! MAGA!"
One last note. I was so amused that his best pal forever, until he throws him under the bus, Leon Ketamine-head, was screaming that the 5 million or so protestors Saturday were all being paid by George Soros. Uh, bud, who was handing out checks in Wisconsin last week?
And Leon was screaming about losing $30 BILLION due to the tariffs. That is, until someone told him to delete his tweets. Which he did.
So there you have it. I'm probably wrong on everything, but that's my take on what's going on and what I expect to happen.
EDIT: to update Apple shipping phones from India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/mobiles-tabs/how-apple-flew-5-flights-full-of-iphones-from-india-and-china-in-3-days-to-beat-trump-tariffs/articleshow/120044321.cms
Anyway, had some problems ordering her a new base 16 yesterday, but resolved it this morning and she'll have a new phone sometime Tuesday. We're keeping her 13 Mini as a backup and for international travel in case of border trouble. I replaced my 13 Mini shortly after the 16 released last year as it had a couple of problems that were defying easy diagnosis. Thus far, OS-problems aside, it's been an excellent phone. Takes great photos even though it's not the Pro model.
Apple apparently shipped
So. Tariffs and inflation. I'm going to talk about inflation first, in relation to Canada and Mexico since they were the first targets.
What do I think will happen. Well, we're already seeing pain in red states because Canadian businesses are stopping buying from them before last week's launch of the international trade war (including Penguin Island). With Canadian stores clearly labeling Canadian-manufactured products, it was easy for their citizens to avoid buying American products with very little effort on their part. This especially hit the liquor industry, which has lots of manufacturing in the south. Their products are slowly losing shelf space because it's not moving, so that's unsold inventory that is gathering dust. Not only is their revenue down because stores are not buying more product, at some point, stores are going to start wanting refunds on unsold merchandise from distributors.
But that's just sales, which can be a component of inflation. Let's talk about what the tariffs might do to what we see in shelf pricing. Bob and Tom are American manufacturers and they make largely the same product. Bob's source materials are American-made, and cost a little more than Tom's. Tom's source materials are now getting slammed by the tariffs and he has to pay more for his goods. To maintain profits, he has to charge more, so now his goods are a lot more expensive than Bob's. Clearly Bob, who already has decent sales, is going to sell more goods.
But is Bob going to keep the same price? Hell no! He'll raise his price, not as high as Tom's, but there's an opportunity here to make more money! Just like hurricane season and the aftermath when some lumber yards and such raise prices. There's no reason to leave money on the table if consumers must buy the product, as long as he keeps his prices lower than Tom's, who is stuck with the tariff, he's in great shape and everyone else is not only paying Tom's tariff if they buy Tom's because they like Tom, but they're also lining Bob's pocket.
And then there's poor Fred, who gets his source materials from China. He's just flat-out screwed. There's limits to how much you can raise your price and be competitive, and if he lowers his price to close to Tom's or Bob's, he may be losing money, which is no way to run a railroad.
What you'll see is manufacturers directly affected by the tariffs will raise their prices. Maybe not on current stock already made that's in the shipping pipeline, but they'll have to raise it on new stuff being made. And everyone other supplier or manufacturer is going to turn that dial up a couple of notches - not because they have to, but because the public will get used to paying more because they have no choice, and they're doing it because they don't want to leave any money on the table that they can't get ahold of.
That's my take on what we'll see on inflation. There's no way to say how high it will go or how wildly it will vary. But we are in for a wild ride.
Last week's tariffs. The most bat-shit insanity of it is that there was no sound mathematics behind it. It did not take into account the service industry, thus did not accurately reflect any potential trade imbalance. For example, Australia is a net importer of American goods (they have no automobile manufacturing there, etc.) yet were hit with a 10% tariff. There's also that arctic island that has no humans living on it, entirely populated by penguins and such, that has tariffs levied against it. It has been noted that the countries seem to have been selected/targeted by their internet Top Level Domain (.us, .uk, .de, etc). Absolutely non-sensical.
AND, just like when Premier Ford threatened an energy export tax to the USA, the piggie squealed when China threw a 34% tariff against American goods. He tried to hide behind the bluster of 'Big mistake!', but the fact is that he's never been able to handle strong opposition. He expects everyone to kowtow to him, viewing everything as a zero-sum game in which he must always win. Ignore the fact that in international trade, well-executed treaties can have everyone benefiting.
The most curious thing about his relationship with China is that all of the merchandise crap that he hawks is made there! But it's probably all paid out of a slush fund, so he probably never sees the costs and doesn't care as long as his
My expectation: the billionaire class, behind the scene, will apply pressure to reverse the tariffs and it'll get done while victory will be declared. Too much money has been wiped from the exchanges for them to be happy with this uncontrolled and turbulent situation, and they're telling the news that they don't like it. "We got what we wanted, everyone is coming to negotiate a fair deal. WE WON! MAGA!"
One last note. I was so amused that his best pal forever, until he throws him under the bus, Leon Ketamine-head, was screaming that the 5 million or so protestors Saturday were all being paid by George Soros. Uh, bud, who was handing out checks in Wisconsin last week?
And Leon was screaming about losing $30 BILLION due to the tariffs. That is, until someone told him to delete his tweets. Which he did.
So there you have it. I'm probably wrong on everything, but that's my take on what's going on and what I expect to happen.
EDIT: to update Apple shipping phones from India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/mobiles-tabs/how-apple-flew-5-flights-full-of-iphones-from-india-and-china-in-3-days-to-beat-trump-tariffs/articleshow/120044321.cms
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 02:09 am (UTC)I’m keeping my fingers crossed that my iPhone 13 mini holds together for a few years. I’m resigned to the fact that my next iPhone will be a big, expensive one, and I’m hanging on to this little one as long as I can.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 07:40 pm (UTC)I find iPhones last at least 5 years, as long as you're careful to avoid physical damage you should be able to get more than that. I have an 8 in a drawer that still works just fine and has good battery life. I don't obsess over the news, but this severely affects our ability to move somewhere that leverages our retirement funds better where we can expect better medical care/access, a very important point for the two of us.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 02:40 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 07:40 pm (UTC)Good! ELBOWS UP!
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 04:34 am (UTC)You give them more credit than I do. :)
Here comes Covid Pt. 2 without, so far, the disease. Prices will go up simply because they can. UGH!!!!!
Hugs, Jon
PS: Dang, that reminds me, I really do need to get a new phone too. UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 01:36 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 04:14 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 07:44 pm (UTC)I'd make that a priority.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 01:50 pm (UTC)Fortunately I'm old enough to have had measles as a child before the vaccines became available.
What people don't seem to understand about measles is that it's worse in unvaccinated adults. In my generation, such adults were in short supply. But now we have grown up children of anti-vaxxers, who were protected by herd immunity from catching it as children. One of those unvaccinated adults has already died.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 04:16 pm (UTC)A friend of mine suggested that I get a booster shot.
I looked into it and the CDC website was suggesting that people over a certain, which I was, should get a booster. So I went to my doc and asked for one and he ordered it for me. :)
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 07:45 pm (UTC)Talk to your doc: resistance drops about 0.25% annually, so it might not be a bad idea to get a booster if you're in a potentially high-traffic area. They can also get a test done to check your titers.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 07:42 pm (UTC)There's no doubt some will start jacking prices given the least provocation. Others will wait. But in the end, it matters little. And the way things are right now, Bird Flu will become Covid, Part 2.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 12:22 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 12:33 am (UTC)And the main reason that they're expensive is because of flocks being culled because of bird flu outbreaks. Egg prices have not been particularly hit - thus far - from inflationary pressure. But I'm sure that will change as producers and the entire production/distribution chain take advantage of the tariff debacle.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 01:16 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 02:08 am (UTC)Well, for us: baking, making ice cream, Russet uses one for breakfast occasionally, sometimes I'll make an omelet. Our usage is highly variable. I've been on an extended cornbread experiment, and that can use 1-3 per batch. Russet has fallen in love with the stuff and it's great as the bottom layer in a bowl of green chili stew!
no subject
Date: 2025-04-10 01:21 am (UTC)I have just over a dozen in the fridge now. I need to check the date on them. :o
no subject
Date: 2025-04-10 01:25 am (UTC)No, we buy a dozen at a time, and even if I am planning some serious production, I'd buy two 12-packs. I've never bought an 18-pack, it wouldn't fit my fridge well! And you can freeze eggs if you're pushing the date, plus you always have the float test to see if they're good. It's rare we push the date that far, but sometimes we do have to toss some.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-11 01:12 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 05:08 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 05:34 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-08 07:44 pm (UTC)Ford did a very interesting move: offering all their product at employee discount! Some companies are absorbing price increases as long as they can to minimize sticker shocks.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 01:21 am (UTC)I also just ordered a new phone. My Pixel lasted me a good almost 6 years I think, but it's starting to drain quickly. Luckily, I decided I'm not tied to an expensive brand anymore (they took away my HEADPHONE JACK! >:<<<), and the Fi store had this year's Moto G for $60. So...going with that!
no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 02:09 am (UTC)There was a recent update to the Pixels that increased battery drain, much to everyone's consternation. That could well be the cause of your problem. Sadly, reverting the OS to an older version is no small feat.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 02:12 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-09 11:08 pm (UTC)His game playing is sick and evil.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-10 01:19 am (UTC)I'm wondering if my funds will recover in 90 days before he starts his next round of screwing with the economy. A lot of companies are really pissed because they want predictability, and he's really messing with that.
no subject
Date: 2025-04-10 05:11 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-04-10 07:18 pm (UTC)We had a pair of iPhone 13 Minis which were quite nice, but mine had a couple of inexplicable problems, so I upgraded last year when the 16 came out. I miss the smaller form factor, but that's the way it is. I agree, ride 'em into the ground.