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thewayneI'm just going to copy the Slashdot summary, then comment on it: Fast Company ran a contrarian take about AI from entrepreneur/thought leader Faisal Hoque, who argues there's three AI bubbles.
The first is a classic speculative bubble, with asset prices soaring above their fundamental values (like the 17th century's Dutch "tulip mania"). "The chances of this not being a bubble are between slim and none..."
Second, AI is also arguably in what we might call an infrastructure bubble, with huge amounts being invested in infrastructure without any certainty that it will be used at full capacity in the future. This happened multiple times in the later 1800s, as railroad investors built thousands of miles of unneeded track to serve future demand that never materialized. More recently, it happened in the late '90s with the rollout of huge amount of fiber optic cable in anticipation of internet traffic demand that didn't turn up until decades later. Companies are pouring billions into GPUs, power systems, and cooling infrastructure, betting that demand will eventually justify the capacity. McKinsey analysts talk of a $7 trillion "race to scale data centers" for AI, and just eight projects in 2025 already represent commitments of over $1 trillion in AI infrastructure investment. Will this be like the railroad booms and busts of the late 1800s? It is impossible to say with any kind of certainty, but it is not unreasonable to think so.
Third, AI is certainly in a hype bubble, which is where the promise claimed for a new technology exceeds reality, and the discussion around that technology becomes increasingly detached from likely future outcomes. Remember the hype around NFTs? That was a classic hype bubble. And AI has been in a similar moment for a while. All kinds of media — social, print, and web — are filled with AI-related content, while AI boosterism has been the mood music of the corporate world for the last few years. Meanwhile, a recent MIT study reported that 95% of AI pilot projects fail to generate any returns at all.
But the article ultimately argues there's lessons in the 1990s dotcom boom: that "a thing can be hyped beyond its actual capabilities while still being important... When valuations correct — and they will — the same pattern will emerge: companies that focus on solving real problems with available technology will extract value before, during, and after the crash." The winners will be companies with systematic approaches to extracting value — adopting mixed portfolios with different time horizons and risk levels, while recognizing organizational friction points for a purposeful (and holistic) integration.
"The louder the bubble talk, the more space opens for those willing to take a methodical approach to building value."
The first bubble is obvious. Huge amounts of money is being 'invested' in AI/LLMs and the returns have been dubious and amusing, and sometimes lethal. Children and teens taking their own lives, a formerly well-behaved autistic child becoming violent, etc. The valuation of Tesla going up while its sales sales plunge is always an amusing example. The infrastructure bubble is tragic: coal and offline nuclear power plants are being planned to power data centers exclusively for these things, and along with them are their water requirements. And that is a really big problem with increasing climate change. I read an article that I'll post if I can find it that said that each simple AI query is the equivalent of the use of a small bottle of water. The ecological cost is really quite, quite staggering. The eco cost of bitcoin and its kin is trivial compared to this.
The third bubble is interesting. They've demonstrated that LLMs can do some very cool things when tasked into specific purposes and trained in specific bodies of knowledge, like researching new antibiotics or metal alloys with new properties that are needed.
I think the thing that I'm the most curios about is when the corrections/collapses will start taking place. Considering the valuations involved, the financial quake will make the Dot Com crash look like the merest tremor.
The author, Faisal Hoque, is a lot more optimistic about AI than I. He compares its development to such as Amazon and Google during the Dot Com era of the 90s. They had very long-term development timelines ('Moon Shots') that they were quietly pursuing that achieved their long-term survival. And while not all current AI companies are going to achieve those and remain largely in their current form, some may. He talks about Pets.com burning through $300mil before collapsing, which we now see as a trivially small amount of money in today's tech market.
Curious times. We shall see how things shake out.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91400857/there-isnt-an-ai-bubble-there-are-three-ai-bu
https://slashdot.org/story/25/09/20/1847246/there-isnt-an-ai-bubble---there-are-three
The first is a classic speculative bubble, with asset prices soaring above their fundamental values (like the 17th century's Dutch "tulip mania"). "The chances of this not being a bubble are between slim and none..."
Second, AI is also arguably in what we might call an infrastructure bubble, with huge amounts being invested in infrastructure without any certainty that it will be used at full capacity in the future. This happened multiple times in the later 1800s, as railroad investors built thousands of miles of unneeded track to serve future demand that never materialized. More recently, it happened in the late '90s with the rollout of huge amount of fiber optic cable in anticipation of internet traffic demand that didn't turn up until decades later. Companies are pouring billions into GPUs, power systems, and cooling infrastructure, betting that demand will eventually justify the capacity. McKinsey analysts talk of a $7 trillion "race to scale data centers" for AI, and just eight projects in 2025 already represent commitments of over $1 trillion in AI infrastructure investment. Will this be like the railroad booms and busts of the late 1800s? It is impossible to say with any kind of certainty, but it is not unreasonable to think so.
Third, AI is certainly in a hype bubble, which is where the promise claimed for a new technology exceeds reality, and the discussion around that technology becomes increasingly detached from likely future outcomes. Remember the hype around NFTs? That was a classic hype bubble. And AI has been in a similar moment for a while. All kinds of media — social, print, and web — are filled with AI-related content, while AI boosterism has been the mood music of the corporate world for the last few years. Meanwhile, a recent MIT study reported that 95% of AI pilot projects fail to generate any returns at all.
But the article ultimately argues there's lessons in the 1990s dotcom boom: that "a thing can be hyped beyond its actual capabilities while still being important... When valuations correct — and they will — the same pattern will emerge: companies that focus on solving real problems with available technology will extract value before, during, and after the crash." The winners will be companies with systematic approaches to extracting value — adopting mixed portfolios with different time horizons and risk levels, while recognizing organizational friction points for a purposeful (and holistic) integration.
"The louder the bubble talk, the more space opens for those willing to take a methodical approach to building value."
The first bubble is obvious. Huge amounts of money is being 'invested' in AI/LLMs and the returns have been dubious and amusing, and sometimes lethal. Children and teens taking their own lives, a formerly well-behaved autistic child becoming violent, etc. The valuation of Tesla going up while its sales sales plunge is always an amusing example. The infrastructure bubble is tragic: coal and offline nuclear power plants are being planned to power data centers exclusively for these things, and along with them are their water requirements. And that is a really big problem with increasing climate change. I read an article that I'll post if I can find it that said that each simple AI query is the equivalent of the use of a small bottle of water. The ecological cost is really quite, quite staggering. The eco cost of bitcoin and its kin is trivial compared to this.
The third bubble is interesting. They've demonstrated that LLMs can do some very cool things when tasked into specific purposes and trained in specific bodies of knowledge, like researching new antibiotics or metal alloys with new properties that are needed.
I think the thing that I'm the most curios about is when the corrections/collapses will start taking place. Considering the valuations involved, the financial quake will make the Dot Com crash look like the merest tremor.
The author, Faisal Hoque, is a lot more optimistic about AI than I. He compares its development to such as Amazon and Google during the Dot Com era of the 90s. They had very long-term development timelines ('Moon Shots') that they were quietly pursuing that achieved their long-term survival. And while not all current AI companies are going to achieve those and remain largely in their current form, some may. He talks about Pets.com burning through $300mil before collapsing, which we now see as a trivially small amount of money in today's tech market.
Curious times. We shall see how things shake out.
https://www.fastcompany.com/91400857/there-isnt-an-ai-bubble-there-are-three-ai-bu
https://slashdot.org/story/25/09/20/1847246/there-isnt-an-ai-bubble---there-are-three
no subject
Date: 2025-09-22 10:18 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2025-09-22 11:26 pm (UTC)I'll dig up a link to Brandywine Theater Company's production of The Wall. As I speak, we're doing rehearsals for Fiddler On The Roof, to be performed in November. We're also doing two performances of Rocky Horror Picture Show for Halloween! I'm doing the rehearsal band occasionally for Fiddler and will be the performance band for Rocky. Someone else is composing the music for the Brandywine productions, they're much better than me. And the people who make this game, Standing Stone Games (SSG), are pretty gobsmacked at what BTC is able to do! Some of their game moderators attend our performances. :-)
no subject
Date: 2025-09-23 03:21 am (UTC)This is an hour of Queen from an annual Monsters of the Rock show. Lots of fun! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2D8L6yYvy20&list=RD2D8L6yYvy20
no subject
Date: 2025-10-07 01:37 am (UTC)I'm part way through listening to the entire holiday festival (& watching a fair bit of it; I love how people wind up line dancing, it's glorious) & just got to my favorite version of my favorite Christmas song ever, & now I'm picturing the entire band set up outside the Black Gates with the armies of the west behind them & playing that right at Sauron. Good idea? Nah. But BEST FUCKING IDEA? HELL YEAH
... I should have known better than to try to eat through Mordor Christmas Carol
if someone else is composing the music for Brandywine, does that mean you're doing the orchestrations for your band? because if so, DAMN, sir
plus you're doing ENTIRE ASS PLAYS, THAT'S SO COOL
no subject
Date: 2025-10-07 03:30 am (UTC)I have plans for other music videos with custom lyrics. With what I'm learning from Brandywine Theater Co., I think I can do much better! Springfest Oddity/Sgt Tom was very vaguely scripted and shot, there's lots to improve upon. It's certainly possible to get in front of the Black Gates, but it's a bit dangerous. You'd need a level 150 patrol group to keep the band safe while they're performing. Which could make for interesting excerpts.
World of Warcraft had an easier way of doing things. They had a server that you could create instances in, then use a software package that let you program avatar actions in and render that into a video. You could do some pretty awesome stuff that way. We have to work harder, but it's worth it.