AI datacenters creating an order backlog of JET ENGINES

[thewayne]

*SIGH*

I'll let the Slashdot summary do the initial speaking for me:

A global shortage of jet engines is threatening the rapid expansion of AI data centers, as hyperscalers like OpenAI and Amazon scramble to secure aeroderivative turbines to power their energy-hungry AI clusters. With wait times stretching into the 2030s and emissions rising, the AI boom is literally running on jet fuel. Tom's Hardware reports: Interviews and market research indicate that manufacturers are quoting years-long lead times for turbine orders. Many of those placed today are being slotted for 2028-30, and customers are increasingly entering reservation agreements or putting down substantial deposits to hold future manufacturing capacity. "I would expect by the end of the summer, we will be largely sold out through the end of '28 with this equipment," said Scott Strazik, CEO of turbine maker GE Vernova, in an interview with Bloomberg back in March.

General Electric's LM6000 and LM2500 series -- both derived from the CF6 jet engine family -- have quickly become the default choice for AI developers looking to spin up serious power in a hurry. OpenAI's infrastructure partner, Crusoe Energy, recently ordered 29 LM2500XPRESS units to supply roughly one gigawatt of temporary generation for Stargate, effectively creating a mobile jet-fueled grid inside a West Texas field. Meanwhile, ProEnergy, which retrofits used CF6-80C2 engines into trailer-mounted 48-megawatt units, confirmed that it has delivered more than 1 gigawatt of its PE6000 systems to just two data center clients. These engines, which were once strapped to Boeing 767s, now spend their lives keeping inference moving.

Siemens Energy said this year that more than 60% of its US gas turbine orders are now linked to AI data centers. In some states, like Ohio and Georgia, regulators are approving multi-gigawatt gas buildouts tied directly to hyperscale footprints. That includes full pipeline builds and multi-phase interconnects designed around private-generation campuses. But the surge in orders has collided with the cold reality of turbine manufacturing timelines. GE Vernova is currently quoting 2028 or later for new industrial units, while Mitsubishi warns new turbine blocks ordered now may not ship until the 2030s. One developer reportedly paid $25 million just to reserve a future delivery slot.

Now, in some cases the jet engine is in place as a power backup in case main grid power fails. But in many cases, such as Leon Muskbrat's xAI data centers, he's running them full-time while he's waiting for generating stations to be built! And yes, the locals are not happy because he's installing more turbines than he's permitted for. And, of course, the local town councils are doing squat to enforce permits because JOBS!

One interesting Slashdot commenter said "Yes during the dotcom bubble the company my dad worked for made HVAC and UPS equipment for data centers, and they declined the opportunity to build out bigger capacity to meet orders instead of just letting the queue grow longer because their management figured it was a bubble. So, they survived the pop because instead of having unused factories, they just had some cancelled orders. The turbine manufacturers probably feel the same or just don't feel like trying to build factories during a trade war anyhow."

The big question, of course, is how much will this cause problems with the production of jet aircraft? These jet engine generators take engines made for... wait for it... jets. The Boeing 767 is specifically mentioned, that plane is currently in production, and engines are needed for newly-made aircraft and also to service the fleet that is now flying. In the world of 'money talks, BS walks' I suspect that the vulture capitalists backing AI may be able to throw more cash towards data centers, pulling more orders for engines than the airlines can. Could this disrupt global air travel? Will the engine makers, such as GE, be stupid enough to build more capacity and when the AI bubble bursts, be on the hook for billions of dollars that suddenly is no longer needed?

Now, there's one other point that I don't get. There are thousands and thousands of jet engines on the used markets available right now. Okay, maybe they're not quite as powerful as something that's strapped onto a 767. So maybe you need two or three or four to make that much power. But they're available right now. SO WHY AREN'T YOU GOBBLING UP THE USED MARKET?

Article behind a paywall:
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/turbine-shortage-threatens-ai-datacenters-as-wait-times-stretch-into-2030

https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/25/10/28/0151205/jet-engine-shortages-threaten-ai-data-center-expansion-as-wait-times-stretch-into-2030

Comments

[kaishin108]

That is wild!

[murakozi]

There are thousands and thousands of jet engines on the used markets available right now.

Well hey, there are four of them on that 'free' 747 a tangerine colored person got!

[thewayne]

ROFL!

[dewline]

*snerk*

[dewline]

This is frikkin' ridiculous.

[thewayne]

Absolutely agree.  They're building data centers with massive energy requirements, the current grid cannot supply them and cannot expand fast enough, and mostly current subscribers are going to end up footing the bills because the governments and regulators aren't going to slam the data centers with the cost of expanding capacity!

[armiphlage]

A decade ago, technology companies messed up jet turbine manufacturers by purchasing all the available CNC machines to make Apple parts.

https://beneinstein.com/no-you-cant-manufacture-that-like-apple-does-93bea02a3bbf

[thewayne]

That is very interesting!  I'd never heard of it before.

[armiphlage]

There are all sorts of odd shortages popping up periodically, like car companies not being able to get parts because a cell phone manufacturer uses a certain chip in their new design. A good percentage of the people in our factory spend all their time hunting down material.

[thewayne]

I heard that not long after Russia invaded Ukraine, they ran into a semiconductor shortage and started buying up controller boards from junkyard washing machines, TVs, dishwashers, etc. to salvage ICs, transistors, etc. to make/repair missiles and such as sanctions had mostly cut them out of the supply loop.  I don't know how much of that was true, but I found it plausible.

[armiphlage]

There's a whole industry built around salvaging parts, cleaning them up and relabeling to look brand new. They could be damaged by static electricity or electrical overstress, or could be a slower or lower-capacity part than what they're being resold as. Or they could be taken from defective material thrown into a scrap heap, but not properly destroyed. We spend a lot of time, effort, and money keeping counterfeit parts out of the supply chain for aerospace manufacturing. People were already doing it before sanctions, but it became government-approved in Russia.

[thewayne]

Hey!  A certain number of parts are going to be defective anyway, ya know?  Kinda inevitable. Pity about them resister leads being a little sort, don't know why they came from the factory like that.  ;-)  Like different speeds of CPUs being if it didn't pass the highest speed test, sell it at the lower speed relabeled.  It's not defective, just more reliable under less stress.  The joke about the $100,000 coffee machine for the B-52s because it's mil-spec and can theoretically survive a crash.  'Cause if I crash my Buff, dammit, I want a cup of coffee!

[armiphlage]

For certain big ugly flying things, after soldering the resistors in place on the printed circuit boards for the coffee maker, we have to wash the board five times in deionized water using saponifier that costs $7000 a barrel. The low-activity rosin-based flux (purified pine tree sap) used during soldering is considered "no clean", and is left on the product for consumer products. For aerospace products, Nadcap requires that it be washed off within eight hours of application, leaving fewer ions than the equivalent of ten micrograms of sodium chloride per square inch. And we have to measure this cleanliness level on freshly-washed product every eight hours when producing those coffee makers, using a measuring device that costs as much as a Porsche.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nadcap

If the coffee maker repeatedly flies in cold air at high altitudes, lands on a runway in a hot, humid environment, and takes off again, condensation will form on the circuit board. Then the heat of the coffee maker will soften any flux residue, and ions will enter the condensate. The voltage differences in the circuits will cause ions to migrate in the liquid to line up between high and low voltage. After many, many landings and takeoffs, with the coffee maker powered on while condensate is on the board, a little trail of ions will connect a power circuit to a ground circuit. This causes a high impedance short. Electricity flows, the high resistance causes lots of heat, and the coffee maker catches on fire. If the coffee maker is in a metal tube full of fuel, flammable hydraulic fluid, and things that go boom, this may be considered stressful.

In addition to washing the circuit boards in the coffee maker, we sometimes are instructed to spray, dip, or vapour-deposit water-repellent coatings onto the circuit boards. This is a messy and labour-intensive process, but provides extra protection.

[armiphlage]

[bias note: I work in a factory making circuit assemblies that end up in the sky and/or low earth orbit]

[thewayne]

A mildly extreme working environment. :-)

[thewayne]

Very cool!  I was aware of some of that, but not all and I always love hearing from subject matter experts.  Which reminds me of a joke.  An F-16 is flying escort for a C-5 Galaxy transporting some important stuff.  Both pilots are bored and are chatting on the radio.  The Falcon pilot decides to get showy and a few high-speed rolls around the Galaxy and over the radio says 'Your plane can't do that!'  The Galaxy pilot says, 'Oh, yeah!  Well, your plane can't do this!'  The radio goes silent, the Galaxy continues slowly eating the miles.  Ten minutes later the Galaxy pilot comes back on the radio and says to the Falcon pilots 'Well, how did you like that?!'  Falcon pilot: 'Nothing happened!'  'Oh, no?  I walked back to the galley, made a sandwich and ate it, had a nice cup of coffee, chatted with the load master, then went to the bathroom.  Can you do that?'

[disneydream06]

I think I will start driving places. :o :o :o
Hugs, Jon

[silveradept]

They're not gobbling up the used market because they think used things will only cost them more money in the long run. Most likely because they don't intend to provide enough money for support and maintenance for those units as they try to use them to their greatest potential. As you know, only cheapskates and unserious people buy used, dahling.

[thewayne]

Considering the specs and certifications of the people who rebuild jet engines, they should be fine.  But I don't know how different they are for aviation vs power generation configurations.  I do though resent them being used for AI data centers, the bubble cannot burst quickly enough.

[silveradept]

They should be, and yet, I would rather see the data centers and the LLMs disappear entirely except for what they would actually be used for.

[thewayne]

Most definitely agree!