![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
thewayneSuch utter insanity.
Let's first talk about Polymarket. It's a mostly legal form of gambling, betting on things that might happen in the future. There are rules as to what constitutes a true outcome for the bet. In this particular case, the bet was whether or not an Iranian missile would strike Israel on March 10. However, it had a condition that in the event the missile was intercepted, whether or not it subsequently struck Israel, it would not constitute a win for the bet.
There's a lot more that can be said about Polymarket and their ability to wiggle out of paying bets in either direction, but that's not what this post is about.
On March 10, an Iranian missile struck Israel. It was not intercepted. Fortunately it missed the town that it was aimed at and hit a wooded area about 500 meters from homes. Emergency services responded and determined there were no injuries or deaths. Reporter Emanuel Fabian working for The Times of Israel reported on the incident.
And the next day he started receiving mysterious messages asking him if it was actually interceptor missile fragments, and to post an update to his story stating such. Then the messages started getting rougher, ultimately getting threatening, to the point of saying he had the choice of updating the story to say it was intercepted, and he'd get a nice amount of cash for it, or if he didn't do it he'd be killed. These people went to the extreme of making posts on the bet on the Polymarket web site in his name that he was in the process of updating his story and had sent the change to his editors when he had done no such thing. Ultimately he went to the Israeli police and either he or the police reported this harassment to the Polymarket people.
Ultimately Polymarket posted that the people involved in threatening Fabian had been banned from their site.
It's an interesting read. But I do have to wonder if it is the end of the story.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/
https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/03/16/210211/polymarket-gamblers-threaten-to-kill-journalist-over-iran-missile-story
Let's first talk about Polymarket. It's a mostly legal form of gambling, betting on things that might happen in the future. There are rules as to what constitutes a true outcome for the bet. In this particular case, the bet was whether or not an Iranian missile would strike Israel on March 10. However, it had a condition that in the event the missile was intercepted, whether or not it subsequently struck Israel, it would not constitute a win for the bet.
There's a lot more that can be said about Polymarket and their ability to wiggle out of paying bets in either direction, but that's not what this post is about.
On March 10, an Iranian missile struck Israel. It was not intercepted. Fortunately it missed the town that it was aimed at and hit a wooded area about 500 meters from homes. Emergency services responded and determined there were no injuries or deaths. Reporter Emanuel Fabian working for The Times of Israel reported on the incident.
And the next day he started receiving mysterious messages asking him if it was actually interceptor missile fragments, and to post an update to his story stating such. Then the messages started getting rougher, ultimately getting threatening, to the point of saying he had the choice of updating the story to say it was intercepted, and he'd get a nice amount of cash for it, or if he didn't do it he'd be killed. These people went to the extreme of making posts on the bet on the Polymarket web site in his name that he was in the process of updating his story and had sent the change to his editors when he had done no such thing. Ultimately he went to the Israeli police and either he or the police reported this harassment to the Polymarket people.
Ultimately Polymarket posted that the people involved in threatening Fabian had been banned from their site.
It's an interesting read. But I do have to wonder if it is the end of the story.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-on-polymarket-are-vowing-to-kill-me-if-i-dont-rewrite-an-iran-missile-story/
https://news.slashdot.org/story/26/03/16/210211/polymarket-gamblers-threaten-to-kill-journalist-over-iran-missile-story
no subject
Date: 2026-03-17 03:23 pm (UTC)Hugs, Jon
no subject
Date: 2026-03-17 06:41 pm (UTC)Completely agree. I pretty much have no problem with sports betting, or betting on election results. But on Polymarket? You can bet on virtually anything.
no subject
Date: 2026-03-18 01:42 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2026-03-17 09:20 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2026-03-17 09:24 pm (UTC)Today Arizona announced that it's suing the prediction market Kalshi for being an illegal gambling operation. Among the allegations are that it's illegal in AZ to bet on election outcomes, which Kalshi repeatedly allowed.https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2026/03/arizona-indicts-prediction-market-kalshi-for-running-illegal-gambling-operation/
no subject
Date: 2026-03-17 10:06 pm (UTC)I mean it’s either “a game of chance”, or it’s not. In this case the ENTIRE POINT of the system is to blow smoke and blur the difference between the two.
Fucking duh.
no subject
Date: 2026-04-03 06:44 am (UTC)This is why gambling is such a heavily-regulated environment, because the minute the games stop being sufficiently "chance," there are going to be people who have heavily invested in specific outcomes trying to make sure those outcomes happen.
Too many people think they can predict or model the future, and to all of them, the Fates laugh, very unkindly.
no subject
Date: 2026-04-03 07:39 am (UTC)Very true. There's an old joke about the best way to make the gods laugh is to tell them your plans.